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Government of India
Earth System Science Organization
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Press Release: Dated: 1
st
Aug, 2024
Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended range Forecast for next two weeks (1
-14
th
Aug, 2024)
1. Salient Observed Features for week ending 31
st
July, 2024
• Last week’s extremely heavy rainfall spell continued over Madhya Maharashtra,
Konkan and Goa and Gujarat Region on 25
th
to 26
th
July and then significantly reduced
thereafter across west coast of India. On 25
th
July, exceptionally heavy rainfall also
reported in Ghat areas of Pune Dist-(rainfall in cm, Tamini-56 and Lavasa-45).
However, there was a significant reduction of rainfall from 27
th
July over Konkan and
Goa and Gujarat state and it was mainly due to northwards shifting of the monsoon trough
and weakening of off-shore trough over Gujarat-Konkan coasts.
• Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy rainfall also
observed over Chhattisgarh on 27
th
July; West Madhya Pradesh on 28
th
July.
• A fresh spell of heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy rainfall
observed over Kerala on 30
th
July; South Interior Karnataka on 30
th
and 31
st
July and over
Tamilnadu on 30
th
July. Meteorological features leading to extremely heavy rainfall
over Kerala on 30
th
July: a)Active off-shore trough along Kerala coast with a cyclonic
circulation in the lower levels over the South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining
Lakshadweep Islands off Kerala coast. b)Strong south-westerly/westerly wind (upto 45
kmph) along and off Kerala coast in the lower level of atmosphere leading to convergence
of moist winds and orographic upliftment due to the Western Ghats.
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• Temperature Scenario: The highest maximum temperature of 42.2
o
C had been recorded
at Sri Ganganagar (West Rajasthan) on 31
th
July 2024 and the lowest minimum
temperature of 17.5
o
C had been recorded at Yeotmal (Vidarbha) on 25
th
July 2024 over
the plains of the country during the week.
♦ Analysis of weekly overall rainfall distribution during the week ending on 31
st
July
2024 and monsoon Season’s Rainfall Scenario (01 June-31
st
July, 2024): The country
as a whole, the weekly cumulative All India Rainfall (25.07.2024 to 31.07.2024) in %
departure from its long period average (LPA) is +4%. All India Seasonal cumulative rainfall
% departure during this year’s monsoon Season’s Rainfall (01 June to 31 July 2024) is
+2%. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India
are given in Table 1 and Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall both for week and
season are given in Annexure I & II respectively.
Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and season)
Region
WEEK
SEASON
25.07.2024 TO 31.07.2024
01.06.2024 TO 31.07.2024
Actual
Normal
% Dep
Actual
% Dep
East & northeast India
44.7
88.2
-49%
610.2
-19%
Northwest India
37.3
53.3
-30%
235.0
-18%
Central India
110.4
76.7
+44%
574.2
+17%
South Peninsula
63.8
46.6
+37%
463.1
+27%
Country as a whole
68.3
65.5
+4%
453.8
+2%
2. Large scale features
✓ Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing in the
equatorial Pacific region. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate
Forecasting System (MMCFS) and other climate models suggest that La Nina is likely
to develop in the second half of the monsoon season towards end of August.
✓ Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian
Ocean. The climate models forecast indicates that these neutral IOD conditions are
likely to continue until the end of the monsoon season.
✓ The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is currently in phase 8 with amplitude close
to 1. It will continue in same phase with amplitude remaining less than 1 till later half of
week 1. Thereafter It will move across phase 1 with amplitude remaining less than 1 till
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later half of week 2. Towards the end of week 2, it will enter into phase 2 with amplitude
remaining less than 1. Thus, MJO is likely to contribute to enhanced convection towards
end of week 2 over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea (AS).
✓ Equatorial Waves forecast by NCICS indicate, influence of MJO over the region
extending from North Bay of Bengal (BoB) to northeast AS during week 1 and influence
of both MJO and Equatorial Rossby Waves over the same region in week 2. All these
will favour enhanced convection over the region and support the genesis of low over the
Head BoB on 2
nd
August with further intensification and westwards movement in week
1 and genesis of another low pressure system in week 2.
3. Forecast for next two week
Forecast for next two week
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (01 to 07 August, 2024)
and Week 2 (08 to 14 August, 2024)
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (01 to 07 August, 2024)
0––––
Weather Systems
✓ The Monsoon trough is active and near of its normal position at mean sea level. It is
likely to persist near its normal position most days of the week.
✓ The off-shore trough at mean sea level runs along South Gujarat to Kerala coast. It is
likely to persist during 1
st
half of the week and weaken thereafter.
✓ A cyclonic circulation lies over Gangetic West Bengal & adjoining south Bangladesh in
lower & middle tropospheric levels. Under its influence a low pressure area likely to
develop during next 24 hours.
✓ A cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Rajasthan & neighbourhood in lower
tropospheric levels.
✓ A trough runs from West Uttar Pradesh to cyclonic circulation over Gangetic West Bengal
in lower & middle tropospheric levels.
✓ A cyclonic circulation lies over Punjab & neighbourhood in lower & middle tropospheric
levels.
Forecast & Warnings:
❖ West & Central India
✓ Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied with
thunderstorm &lightning very likely over the region during one week.
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✓ Isolated extremely heavy rainfall very likely over Madhya Maharashtra during 01
st
-
03
rd
August; East Madhya Pradesh on 02
nd
& 03
rd
; Konkan & Goa, West Madhya
Pradesh and Gujarat Region on 03
rd
August.
✓ Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Konkan & Goa,
Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat Region during 01
st
-05
th
; Madhya Pradesh during 01
st
–
04
th
; Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh during 01
st
-03
rd
and Saurashtra & Kutch on 03
rd
August.
✓ Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Marathwada on 03
rd
and Saurashtra &
Kutch on 04
th
August.
❖ Northwest India
✓ Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with
thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand; scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-
Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan during the week.
✓ Isolated very heavy rainfall also likely over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana-
Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh and West Rajasthan on 01
st
; Uttarakhand during
01
st
–03
rd
; East Rajasthan during 01
st
-04
th
August.
✓ Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Jammu-Kashmir and Rajasthan during 01
st
-05
th
;
Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during 01
st
-07
th
; Uttar Pradesh during 01
st
-03
rd
, 6
th
&
7
th
; Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh on 01
st
& 02
nd
August.
❖ South Peninsular India:
✓ Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Karnataka,
Lakshadweep and Kerala & Mahe, Karnataka and isolated to scattered rainfall over Tamil
Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana and
Rayalaseema during the week.
✓ Isolated extremely heavy rainfall very likely over Coastal Karnataka on 01
st
August.
✓ Very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka 01
st
& 02
nd
; Kerala on 01
st
and Coastal Karnataka on 02
nd
August.
✓ Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Coastal& South Interior Karnataka
during 01
st
-04
th
; Kerala & Mahe on 02
nd
& 03
rd
; Tamil Nadu, Telangana on 01
st
August
and North Interior Karnataka on 01
st
& 02
nd
August.
❖ East & Northeast India
✓ Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with
thunderstorm, lightning very likely over East & Northeast India during the week.
✓ Very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic
West Bengal on 01
st
; Assam & Meghalaya on 01
st
& 02
nd
; Manipur, Mizoram on 01
st
and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 05
th
August.
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✓ Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal on 01
st
& 02
nd
August; Bihar, Assam & Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim,
Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 01
st
-07
th
August.
Rainfall for week 2 (08 to 14 August, 2024):
❖ Monsoon trough is likely to be near normal or north of its normal position during most days
of the week.
❖ Off-shore trough along west coast is likely to prevail & feeble during many days of the week.
❖ Due to above meteorological features, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy
falls are likely over northwest, central, east & northeast India during most days of the week.
❖ Overall, rainfall is likely to be above normal over most parts of the East India; normal to
above normal over Northwest India: near normal over Northeast India and below normal
over most parts of Central & South Peninsular India (except Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema,
where it is likely to be above normal) during the week.
Legends: Heavy Rain: 64.5 to 115.5 mm Very Heavy Rain: 115.6 to 204.4 mm,
Extremely Heavy Rain> 204.4 mm
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Annexure I
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Annexure II
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Annexure III
Extended range froecast of weekly dsitirubtion of rainfall in mm per day (top panel) and
anomalies(lower panesl) from IMD MME