The Innovation Group November 15, 2023 Page 19
iGaming Market Size in Maryland
To estimate the market potential for iGaming in Maryland, we modeled spend per capita using
average iGaming spend data in comparable states, scaled to reflect market maturation over time,
and multiplied the scaled figure by annual forecasts for Maryland’s gambling-age population to
project gross iGaming revenue by year for the state.
To model spend per capita in Maryland, we assume that gamblers in Maryland will generally
behave like gamblers in other states where iGaming is legal and operational. While there are likely
regional differences in iGaming spending behavior due to the availability of brick-and-mortar
gaming, the structure of the online market, and demographic differences between populations,
these differences are likely to be subtle. Further, Maryland is a relative neighbor to multiple states
that have legalized iGaming (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Delaware, and New Jersey), so these
regional differences are likely to be even less pronounced. As such, to model spend per capita, we
calculate aggregate per capita spend across all legal iGaming states (except Nevada), summing
2022 iGaming spend across states and dividing by the sum of the 2022 population over 21 years
old in those states. This results in a spend per capita of approximately $169 in 2028.
While this number captures the spending behavior of the individuals in various states, it’s
important to note that each of these states is at a different stage of market development – it’s
unlikely Maryland will realize this full per capita spend metric in its first full year of operation. In
other words, it is common for spend per capita to increase somewhat rapidly, or ‘ramp,’ in the first
several years of operation and then to level off.
There is considerable disparity in comparable states in the ramp to full market development. States
like Pennsylvania and Michigan appear to be growing revenue per capita more slowly, suggesting
that they realized much of their market growth within a few years of launching. In contrast, New
Jersey had a slower start and has grown at a steadier pace. Even after ten years, New Jersey
iGaming revenue per capita is still growing. West Virginia’s growth seems to more closely mirror
the largely post-COVID markets of Pennsylvania and Michigan, though its iGaming revenue per
capita is much smaller. Delaware presents a difficult comparable, given its poor adoption. With
the recent selection of Rush Street Interactive to partner with Delaware Lottery, we expect to see
Delaware’s iGaming revenue take on a more traditional growth trajectory, though the launch may
have less luster given the past decade of unremarkable offerings.
Based on recency, we believe that Maryland is likely to follow a ramp to market maturity that
looks more similar to Michigan’s, Pennsylvania’s, and West Virginia’s and less like New Jersey’s
or Delaware’s. As such, we believe that our modeled per capita spend figure of $169 represents
what is achievable in the third full year of iGaming operation in Maryland, and our models suggest
that this number represents approximately 90% of total ramped spend per capita. We model 2026
as the first full year of operation based on the earliest possibility of a referendum in Maryland and
the subsequent regulatory development and licensure of technology providers. This results in total
iGaming revenue of approximately $905 million with a fully ramped market in 2029 – i.e., growth
from 2030 forward will mirror adult population and Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) growth.
Our projections of revenue by year are below.