Rail Fares Index - January 2020

Author: Oliver Lowe

Responsible Statistician: Peter Moran

Public Enquiries: Email:

[email protected] Media Enquiries: Tel: 020 7282 2094

Website: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/

Rail Fares Index (January 2020)

Publication date: 19 May 2020

Next Publication date: April 2021

Background

This annual release contains

information on changes in rail

fares. This covers:

• Average change in price of

regulated/unregulated fares

by sector (1995 to 2020) -

Table 1.81

• Average change in price of

fares by ticket type and

sector (2004 to 2020) -

Table 1.8

Coverage: Great Britain

Latest Year: January 2020

(change since January 2019)

Sources:

• LENNON ticketing and

revenue database

• Rail Delivery Group

• Office for National Statistics

Rail fares in Great Britain increased by 2.4% in January 2020,

compared with a 2.7% rise in the January 2020 Retail Prices Index

(RPI). This is the fourth time in the last five years that fares have risen

below the January RPI inflation rate.

The Retail Prices Index measures the change in price of a sample of

retail goods and services. We use it as a comparison for rail fares as it is

used by government (July RPI) to cap changes in regulated rail fares.

Per

centage change in rail fares and ‘all items’ RPI, January 2020

The average change in

the price of regulated fares between

January 2019 and January 2020 was 2.7%. This is below the cap set

by government of 2.8% based on the July 2019 increase in RPI as

detailed in the ONS inflation and price indices

The ticket type with the largest increase in price was Super Off-

Peak fares, which increased by 2.8%.

Office of Rail and Road  19 May 2020

Rail Fares Index (January 2020) 2

Rail Fares Index

Figure 1.01: Revenue share and percentage change in rail fares, National and sector

Regional sector includes Scotland.

The London and South East sector, which holds the largest market share of revenue among the

three sectors, recorded the highest average price increase, of 2.7%. The main drivers within this

sector (Anytime and Season) increased by 2.7% and 2.8% respectively.

The Regional sector recorded the lowest increase of 2.1%. Anytime and Off Peak tickets account

for almost two-thirds of revenue within the sector, and recorded increases of 2.5% and 2.3%

respectively. The cost of Advance tickets increased by 0.2% which helped to offset the higher

increases on other ticket types.

The Long Distance sector saw the average price increase by 2.2% compared to last year. The

main driver within the sector are Advance tickets, which increased by 1.4%.

The Long Distance sector has had the largest real terms change in rail fares since the series

began in 1995. This is largely due to unregulated fares having a greater share of the market in this

sector, and unregulated fares are not bound by any inflationary cap.

Real terms change is the change recorded relative to inflation, based on the Retail Prices Index

(RPI). For example, a real terms increase occurs when the price change exceeds the inflation rate.

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Rail Fares Index (January 2020) 3

Average change in regulated/unregulated fares

Figure 2.01: Nominal and real terms change in regulated and unregulated fares, all

operators, January 2020

The average change in regulated rail fares between January 2019 and January 2020 was 2.7%.

This represented no change in real terms as, over the same time period, the RPI increased by

2.7%. The average change in regulated fares is capped by the Government based on the July RPI,

which was 2.8% in July 2019.

The 2.7% increase in regulated fares is primarily driven by the London and South East sector,

which accounts for just over two thirds of all regulated fare revenue. Regulated fares within that

sector increased by an average of 2.8% compared to January 2019.

Lower price changes within other sectors contributed to the rise in regulated fares being below the

2.8% cap. Some Anytime day returns within the Long Distance sector increased by under 2%, and

Off Peak and weekly Season tickets in the Regional sector also saw lower than anticipated

increases.

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Rail Fares Index (January 2020) 4

Unregulated first class fares increased by 2.8% between January 2019 and 2020. Almost 80% of

first class tickets were sold in the Long Distance sector so the increase of 2.9% in that sector was

counteracted by a lower increase in the London and South East Sector (2.5%).

Standard class unregulated fares saw an increase of 2.1% compared to January 2019. The

London and South East sector recorded the highest increase of 2.5%, with the Long Distance and

Regional sectors both increasing by 1.9%.

Standard class unregulated fares were the only category which decreased in real terms since

January 2019. The real terms reduction was 0.6%, primarily due to the lower price increases

recorded for Advance fares, which fall into this category.

In real terms since January 1995, the average fare increases on first class tickets have been over

three times that of standard class tickets. This is mainly because the first class tickets fall into the

unregulated category which are not capped by government.

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Rail Fares Index (January 2020) 5

Average change in price by ticket type

Figure 3.01: Revenue market share and percentage change in rail fares compared to

2019, ticket t ype

The average change in fares across all ticket types increased by 2.4% between January 2019 and

January 2020, with Super Off Peak tickets recording an increase of 2.8%.

Anytime and Off Peak tickets together account for over half of all ticket revenue. Anytime tickets

rose by 2.7% and Off Peak tickets rose by 2.6% compared to January 2019.

Season tickets recorded an increase of 2.7% relative to January 2019. The market share for

Season tickets continues to fall, with a reduction from 20.6% to 19.5% over the same period.

Advance tickets saw the lowest average increase in price amongst all of the ticket types. Advance

tickets rose by 1.2% since January 2019, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the

previous year. Their market share has grown to 18.5% from 18.0% last year.

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Rail Fares Index (January 2020) 6

Annex 1 – List of tables available on the ORR data

portal

All data tables can be accessed on the ORR data portal free of charge and can be downloaded in

ods format. We can also provide data in csv on request.

All tables associated with this release can be found under Data Tables on the Rail fares page.

Index showing average change in price of rail fares

 Index showing average change in price of rail fares by ticket type – Table 1.8

 Index showing average change in price of rail fares by regulated and unregulated tickets – Table

1.81

Revisions

There have been no revisions made to the previously published tables associated with this

statistical release. Further details on historic revisions to the data set can be found on the

Revisions log

Methodology

Please see the Rail fares index methodology and quality report for more information on the

methodology used to calculate the statistics in this release.

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Annex 2 - Statistical Releases

This publication is part of ORR’s National Statistics accredited releases, which consist of:

Annual

 Rail Finance

 Rail Fares Index

 Rail Safety Statistics

 Rail Infrastructure and Assets

 Rail Emissions

 Regional Rail Usage

Quarterly

 Passenger Rail Performance

 Freight Rail Usage and Performance

 Passenger Rail Usage

 Passenger Rail Service Complaints

In addition to the above, ORR publishes the following Official Statistics on the ORR data portal:

Annual

 Estimates of Station Usage

 Train Operating Company Key Statistics

 Rail Statistics Compendium

 Occupational Health

Quarterly

 Signals passed at danger (SPADS)

 Delay Compensation Claims

 Disabled Person’s Railcard (DPRC)

 Passenger assistance

The ORR data portal provides a list of ORR publication dates for the next twelve months.

The Department for Transport (DfT) also publishes a range of rail statistics which can be found at

DfT Rail Statistics

. For example, Rail passenger numbers and overcrowding on weekdays in major

cities.

Transport Focus publish the National Rail Passenger Survey (NRPS).

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Rail Fares Index (January 2020) 8

National Statistics

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority designated these statistics as National Statistics, in

accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with

the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

National Statistics status means that official statistics meet the highest standards of

trustworthiness, quality and public value.

All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the Authority’s regulatory

arm - Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). The OSR considers whether the statistics meet the

highest standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate.

It is ORR’s r

esponsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected of National Statistics.

If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards,

we will discuss any concerns with the OSR promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at

any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are

restored.

Our statistical releases were assessed in 2012 and hold National Statistics status as detailed in

UKSA Assessment of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics report

. Since our

assessment we have improved the content, presentation and quality of our statistical releases.

Also, in July 2019 we launched our new data portal. Therefore, in late 2019 we worked with the

OSR to conduct a compliance check to ensure we are still meeting the standards of the Code. On

4 November 2019,

OSR published a letter confirming the Compliance check of Office of Rail and

Road statistics as National Statistics.

OSR found many positive aspects in the way that we produce and present our statistics and

welcomed the range of improvements made since the statistics were last assessed in 2012. OSR

identified some areas that we could consider that may enhance the value of the statistics further

and we will be working on these.

For more information on how we adhere to the Code please see the UKSA Code of Practice

page

on the ORR data portal.

For more details, please contact the Statistics Head of Profession Lyndsey Melbourne at

rail.stats@orr.gov.uk

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Rail Fares Index (January 2020) 9

This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0

except where otherwise

stated.

Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the

This publication is available on the ORR data portal

Any media enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us at orr.gov.uk/contact-us.